San Diego Housing Market Update: October 2026

Overview

San Diego County is deep into the Fall Market — the stretch running from the end of August through the week before Thanksgiving, when the Holiday Market takes over.

The headline of the last six weeks is mortgage rates. They finished September at 7.5% and have held there since, a climb of three-quarters of a point in about six weeks — the fastest move since September 2022. That took buying power out of the market quickly, and demand responded.

But here's what didn't move: prices. Homes closed at 100.0% of list price countywide in August, at a median of $950,000, and the typical home that sold was in escrow in 19 days.

That combination — soft volume, firm pricing — is the story of this market, and it's a far better one for owners than the headlines suggest. Inventory is still 19% below a normal pre-COVID autumn, 99.4% of sellers are closing with equity, and there is no wave of forced sellers anywhere in this data.

For buyers, it's the best set of conditions in seven years: more homes to choose from, time to think, and real negotiating room on terms.

The short version

• Inventory: 5,899 active listings, essentially flat over two weeks (+3) and about 1% above last year
• Demand: 1,443 pending sales over the prior 30 days, down 150 (9%) in two weeks and 19% below last October
• Market time: 123 days at the current pace, up from 111 two weeks ago and 98 a year ago
• Mortgage rates: 7.5%, up from 6.75% at the end of August
• Median sale price: $950,000 in August, at 100.0% of list, with a median of 19 days on market
• Median price per square foot: $582
• Closed sales: 1,955 in August, down 6% from a year ago
• Distressed homes: 102 countywide — 35 foreclosures, 67 short sales — 1.7% of all listings
• Sellers with equity: 99.4% of August's closed sales

Prices: the number that actually matters is holding

Start here, because it's the question everyone's really asking.

• The median sale price in August was $950,000, against a median list price of $959,000.
• The sales-to-list price ratio was exactly 100.0%. The typical seller got their asking price.
• The median home that closed had been on the market 19 days.
• Median price per square foot was $582, on a median home of 1,633 square feet.
• 1,955 homes closed, down 6% from August 2025's 2,086 and down 12% from July.

Volume is what has slowed. Value has not. In a market where rates jumped three-quarters of a point in six weeks, San Diego sellers are still collecting full asking price in under three weeks — and that is the single most important fact in this report.

The reason is structural, and it's worth understanding because it isn't going away quickly: there simply aren't enough homes. More on that below.

More detail: what homes are actually selling for, city by city

Supply: still far below normal

There are 5,899 homes on the market across San Diego County — up 3 in the past two weeks, which is as close to unchanged as this metric gets, and down 50 since the end of August.

• Versus last October: up about 1%. Essentially flat year over year.
• Versus the pre-COVID norm: the 2017–2019 average was 7,034. Today's supply sits about 19% below a normal October — 1,135 fewer homes.
• New listings, January through September: 30,439 countywide, 12,360 fewer than the pre-COVID average for the same stretch — a 29% shortfall.

The lock-in effect is still the reason inventory cannot build. Homeowners holding 3% mortgages are staying put, and rates moving to 7.5% makes that math worse, not better.

But the trend is quietly normalizing. Against recent years, 2026 sits in the middle of the pack: 1,365 fewer sellers came to market than last year, but 2,475 more than 2024 and 7,815 more than 2023. The listing drought that defined 2023 has eased substantially. For buyers, that means more to look at than at any point in the last three years outside of 2025.

• Full-year new listings: 31,804 in 2025 (+4%) · 27,964 in 2024 (−8%) · 22,624 in 2023 (−26%)

Expect supply to hold roughly at this level until the week before Thanksgiving, then fall through year-end as unsuccessful sellers delist. That year-end thinning works in favor of anyone still on the market in December — less competition, and the buyers out shopping during the holidays are rarely browsing.

More detail: San Diego housing inventory, tracked

Demand: the rate move did this

Buyer demand — pending sales over the prior 30 days — fell from 1,593 to 1,443, a drop of 150 (9%). That's the largest two-week decline of the year, and it's down 213 (13%) over four weeks.

• Versus last October: 1,779 pending sales, so today is running about 19% lower.
• Versus the May peak: demand topped out at 2,046 and is down 19% from there.
• Versus pre-COVID: the 2017–2019 average was 2,856 — nearly double today's pace.

There's no need to dress this up: it's the lowest October reading since Reports on Housing began tracking San Diego County in 2012.

The cause is identifiable and it is not a problem with San Diego. Rates went from 6.75% at the end of August to 7.5% at the end of September. Here's what that did to a buyer's budget:

• At a $5,000 monthly principal-and-interest payment with 20% down, purchasing power fell from $1,042,500 at 6% to $893,750 at 7.5% — a difference of $148,750.
• On a $1 million home with 20% down, the payment rose from $4,796 to $5,594 — $797 more a month, or $9,568 a year.

That's the whole story. Buyers didn't lose interest in San Diego; a slice of them lost their budget overnight. Which also means this is the most rate-sensitive market in years — demand should stabilize quickly if rates stop climbing.

More detail: how mortgage rates move the San Diego market · what's driving buyer demand

Market time: 123 days countywide

With supply flat and demand down 9%, the Expected Market Time — how long it would take to sell every current listing at today's buying pace — rose from 111 to 123 days.

• Two weeks ago: 111 days · End of August: 107 days · Last October: 98 days · Pre-COVID average: 75 days

That's the slowest reading since January 2019. Remember what it measures, though: it's a supply-and-demand ratio for the entire pool of listings, including homes priced where the market has already said no. The homes that actually sold in August did it in 19 days at full price. Both numbers are true, and price is what decides which one you experience.

The condo market just turned a corner.

• Detached homes: 117 days, up from 103 two weeks ago (87 last year). Median active list price $960,000.
• Condos and townhomes: 142 days, down from 144 two weeks ago (123 last year). Median active list price $655,000.

Condos were the only segment in the county to improve this cycle — and the gap between attached and detached narrowed from 41 days to 25. After a long stretch of condos falling further behind, that's a genuine and welcome reversal for anyone selling one.

More detail: condos vs. detached homes · how long it takes to sell a house here

It depends entirely on your price point

The countywide 123-day figure hides a market that behaves very differently by bracket.

| Price range | Listings | Pending | Market time | Two weeks ago | Last year |

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| $0–$500k | 959 | 156 | 184 days | 157 | 123 |

| $500k–$750k | 1,358 | 349 | 117 days | 111 | 82 |

| $750k–$1M | 1,300 | 363 | 107 days | 94 | 81 |

| $1M–$1.25M | 601 | 187 | 96 days | 88 | 82 |

| $1.25M–$1.5M | 388 | 122 | 95 days | 81 | 93 |

| $1.5M–$2M | 455 | 127 | 107 days | 112 | 119 |

| $2M–$4M | 519 | 113 | 138 days | 124 | 153 |

| $4M–$6M | 147 | 17 | 259 days | 216 | 246 |

| $6M+ | 172 | 9 | 573 days | 528 | 277 |

| All of San Diego County | 5,899 | 1,443 | 123 days | 111 | 98 |

• $1.25M–$1.5M is the fastest band in the county at 95 days, and it's faster than it was a year ago (93 days was last October — essentially matched, in a market with rates 1.5 points higher).
• $1.5M–$2M is genuinely better than a year ago: 107 days today versus 119. It also improved over the last two weeks, one of only two bands to do so.
• $2M–$4M improved substantially year over year: 138 days versus 153.
• The entry level is the pressure point. Under $500,000 sits at 184 days — that band holds 16% of inventory but draws only 11% of demand. Affordability constraints land hardest here, and 7.5% makes it worse.
• $6M+ at 573 days is on a base of 172 listings and 9 pending sales. Treat any reading that thin as directional, not precise.

The takeaway for sellers in the $1.25M–$2M range: you're in the healthiest part of this market, and you're selling into better conditions than last October.

More detail: market time by price range

What homes actually sold for, by price range

Expected market time describes the pool. This describes the outcomes — August closings, by band.

| Price range | Homes sold | Median sale price | Sale-to-list | Median days on market |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| $0–$500k | 185 | $411,000 | 99.0% | 36 |

| $500k–$750k | 404 | $640,000 | 100.0% | 21 |

| $750k–$1M | 478 | $875,000 | 100.0% | 17 |

| $1M–$1.25M | 306 | $1,105,750 | 100.0% | 17 |

| $1.25M–$1.5M | 181 | $1,370,000 | 100.0% | 15 |

| $1.5M–$2M | 176 | $1,721,500 | 99.4% | 16 |

| $2M–$4M | 171 | $2,595,000 | 98.0% | 19 |

| $4M–$6M | 33 | $4,855,000 | 95.4% | 31 |

| $6M+ | 21 | $7,000,000 | 97.8% | 51 |

| All of county | 1,955 | $950,000 | 100.0% | 19 |

Every band from $500,000 to $1.5 million closed at exactly 100.0% of list, in 15 to 21 days. That's 1,369 of August's 1,955 sales — the heart of the county — behaving like a healthy market.

Luxury: thinner competition, longer timelines

Above $2 million — roughly the top 10% of the market:

• Inventory: 838, down 16 (2%) in two weeks and down 112 (12%) from last year. Less competition for luxury sellers than a year ago.
• Demand: 139, down 19 (12%) in two weeks and down 20 (13%) year over year.
• Expected market time: 181 days, up from 162 two weeks ago and roughly level with last October's 179.
• Within the segment: $2M–$4M at 138 days (improved from 153 a year ago), $4M–$6M at 259, and $6M+ at 573 on a very thin base.

A luxury seller listing today is realistically looking at escrow in the spring. Price accordingly from day one — above $4 million, sale-to-list ran 95.4%, which tells you the opening number matters more up here than anywhere else in the county.

More detail: San Diego luxury home market

The crash question, answered with data

For anyone worried about a 2008 repeat, the distress picture answers it clearly.

• 102 distressed homes on the market countywide — 35 foreclosures and 67 short sales.
• That's 1.7% of all listings and 3.0% of demand.
• Foreclosures were 0.2% of August's closed sales. Short sales were 0.4%.
• 99.4% of August's sales were made by sellers with equity.

Distress is up from 46 a year ago, and that direction is worth watching honestly. But the base is tiny. In 2008, distressed sales were a third of the market and forced sellers set the price for everyone. Today there is effectively no forced selling in San Diego, which is precisely why sale prices are still landing at 100% of list in a market with 7.5% mortgages.

More detail: Is the San Diego housing market going to crash?

Looking at a specific city?

Countywide numbers only get you so far. Here's the median days on market for August closings in a sample of communities — and note how many are in the teens:

• Rancho Peñasquitos — 9 days · Chula Vista, Clairemont, Scripps Ranch — 12 days
• University City, La Mesa, San Carlos, Del Mar — 13 days · Mira Mesa — 14 days
• Santee — 15 days · San Diego (city) — 16 days across 735 sales · Tierrasanta — 16 days
• North Park, Poway, El Cajon, Encinitas — 17 days · Escondido — 20 days
• Vista — 22 days · Spring Valley — 25 days · La Jolla — 26 days
• Coronado — 28 days · Carlsbad — 29 days · Oceanside — 31 days

We keep a neighborhood guide for each of the areas people ask about most: La Jolla, Del Mar, Encinitas, Point Loma, Carmel Valley, Pacific Beach, North Park, Hillcrest, Downtown, Mission Valley, El Cajon and Oceanside.

What this means for you

If you're selling — the Fall Market rewards precision and punishes testing. Price against recent pendings and closings from day one.

• $1.25M–$2M: you're in the strongest part of the market, and conditions are better than last October. Price it right and the data says full asking in about two weeks.
• $500k–$1.25M: the deepest, most liquid part of the county. 1,188 homes closed in these bands in August, all at 100.0% of list in 17–21 days.
• Under $500,000: price to a 184-day market immediately rather than testing a number and adjusting later.
• Selling a condo? Your segment just improved for the first time in months, and the gap to detached narrowed by more than two weeks.
• Above $4M: longer runway, and the list price matters more than anywhere else.

If you're buying — this is the most favorable position buyers have had since January 2019.

• More choice: 5,899 listings, including 2,317 under $750,000.
• Time to decide: at 123 days, you are not writing an offer in a weekend against eleven competitors.
• Contingencies are normal again — inspection, appraisal and financing terms that vanished in 2021 are back.
• Ask for a rate buydown. It's the most valuable concession available right now and most buyers never ask for it. On a $750,000 purchase it can beat a $15,000 price cut outright.
• But don't expect a discount on price. Distress is 1.7%, 99.4% of sellers have equity, and supply is 19% below normal. Your leverage is in time and terms, not the number.

If you're waiting for prices to fall — the data doesn't support that bet. Sales are closing at 100% of list, distress is near zero, and supply remains well below the pre-COVID norm. Affordability here is constrained by rates, not prices — which means the variable to watch is inflation data and the bond market, not the listing sheet. And a rate is something you can refinance later. A purchase price is not.

See also: how much negotiating room do San Diego buyers have? · is this a buyer's or a seller's market? · renting vs. buying in San Diego

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the median home price in San Diego? $950,000 in August 2026, at a median of $582 per square foot. Homes closed at 100.0% of list price.

Are San Diego home prices going down? Not in this data. The countywide sales-to-list ratio is 100.0%, meaning the typical seller got their full asking price. Volume has slowed — 1,955 closings in August, down 6% year over year — but values have held.

How long does it take to sell a house in San Diego? The typical home that sold in August was in escrow in 19 days. The countywide expected market time — a supply-and-demand ratio for all current listings — is 123 days. Price is what decides which number applies to you.

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in San Diego right now? Both, depending on what you're negotiating. Buyers have the most leverage since January 2019 on time, contingencies and credits. Sellers still hold the line on price, because supply is 19% below normal and almost nobody is forced to sell.

What are mortgage rates in San Diego right now? 7.5% on a 30-year fixed as of the end of September, up from 6.75% at the end of August — a three-quarter-point rise in about six weeks, the fastest since September 2022.

Is the San Diego housing market going to crash? The distress data argues strongly against it. 102 distressed homes countywide, 1.7% of listings, and 99.4% of August's sales made by sellers with equity. Foreclosures were 0.2% of closings. That is nothing like the conditions preceding 2008.

What price range sells fastest in San Diego? $1.25M–$1.5M at 95 days expected market time — and in actual closings, that band had the fastest median at 15 days, at full asking price.

Why is the market slower than last year? Demand, not supply. Pending sales are down 19% year over year while inventory is up about 1%. Rates at 7.5% took roughly $148,750 of purchasing power out of a typical buyer's budget since February.

Should I wait for prices to drop before buying? The data doesn't support it. Sales close at 100% of list, distress is near zero, and inventory remains 19% below the pre-COVID norm. What's constraining affordability is rates — and rates can be refinanced, while a purchase price can't be renegotiated.

Is the luxury market slowing? Expected market time above $2 million is 181 days, roughly level with last October's 179. Luxury inventory is down 12% year over year, so there's less competition among high-end sellers than a year ago. Within the segment, $2M–$4M actually improved from 153 days to 138.

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Market data via Reports on Housing, as of October 13, 2026; closed-sale figures are August 2026. Analysis by William Routt, Routt Home Team (DRE 01937558).

Thinking about making a move? Reach out — we'll walk you through what these numbers mean for your specific neighborhood and price point.