Why San Diego Is Flooding This Week — and the Three Dates to Watch This Winter

Overview

On Monday morning, the sand berm the city built to protect Mission Beach broke. Water pushed through into the streets near El Carmel Place and off Mission Boulevard. A city spokesperson described the tides as among the highest recorded in recent memory for the region.

Crews rebuilt and reinforced the berm overnight, and it held on Tuesday morning. But the water went elsewhere instead — Dawes Street in Pacific Beach and Ingraham Street near SeaWorld both went under.

There is an active National Weather Service Coastal Flood Warning for San Diego County, in effect through roughly 1 p.m. Thursday, October 29, with high tides forecast at 7.5 to 8 feet or higher and the NWS warning they could break records.

If you've lived here a while, your reasonable question is: why does this keep happening, and when does it happen next?

The answer is that three separate things are stacking on top of each other right now — and only one of them is the moon.

The Three Things Stacking

1. A strong El Niño is physically raising the ocean.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in force. Its most recent diagnostic discussion, issued October 8, 2026, says El Niño "continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027" — with a probability above 83%. The key Niño-3.4 index sat at +2.1°C in that discussion, and NOAA's late-October update put the latest weekly reading at +2.5°C.

That matters here for a specific physical reason. As Adam Young, a geomorphologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography who studies California's changing coastline, puts it: "strong El Niño conditions can raise sea level on the California coast by 6 to 13 inches."

Not metaphorically. The baseline water level goes up by up to a foot, and stays up.

2. King tides are the moon's contribution.

A king tide is what happens when the highest tides of the month line up with the moon's closest approach to Earth. They're entirely predictable — they happen a few times every winter, every year, and they always have.

On their own, king tides are a photo opportunity. On top of an El Niño-elevated ocean, they're the thing that puts water in the street.

3. Underneath both, the long-term trend.

NOAA's tide gauge at San Diego has been recording since 1906. Over that 120-year record, relative sea level has risen at 2.22 millimetres a year — about 0.73 feet per century, or roughly 8.7 inches. The La Jolla gauge, running since 1924, shows 2.02 mm/year.

That's the slow one. It doesn't flood a street by itself. It's the reason the other two now do.

The Number That Actually Explains This Week

Here's the fact that reframes everything, and it's the one most coverage leaves out.

The water this week has been running 1 to 1.7 feet HIGHER than the astronomical tide predictions.

Tide tables tell you where the water would be if the ocean were behaving normally. It isn't. The El Niño signal, plus storm surge and wave setup, is adding well over a foot on top of the predicted number.

The California Coastal Commission says this plainly in its own king tide guidance: actual water heights may exceed tide predictions.

So when you read a tide chart this winter, treat the number as a floor, not a ceiling.

The Dates: Every King Tide Through January

The California Coastal Commission has published this season's king tide windows:

• November 24, 25 and 26, 2026
• December 23, 24 and 25, 2026
• January 21 and 22, 2027

And here's the part worth putting in your phone — the predicted peak times and heights at the San Diego gauge:

| Date | Peak time | Predicted height |

|---|---|---|

| Tue Nov 24 | 7:53 a.m. | 7.37 ft |

| Wed Nov 25 | 8:34 a.m. | 7.45 ft |

| Thu Nov 26 | 9:19 a.m. | 7.30 ft |

| Wed Dec 23 | 7:42 a.m. | 7.46 ft |

| Thu Dec 24 | 8:29 a.m. | 7.56 ft |

| Fri Dec 25 | 9:17 a.m. | 7.40 ft |

| Thu Jan 21 | 7:38 a.m. | 7.33 ft |

| Fri Jan 22 | 8:25 a.m. | 7.41 ft |

Christmas Eve morning is the highest predicted tide of the winter — 7.56 feet at 8:29 a.m.

Add this winter's observed offset to that and you're looking at water potentially in the eight-and-a-half to nine-foot range. Thanksgiving week and Christmas week both land on king tides this year.

Two practical things fall out of that table:

Every single one of these peaks is in the morning, between roughly 7:30 and 9:30 a.m. If you want to see it, that's when. If you need to move a car, that's the window to beat.

And Thanksgiving and Christmas are both affected. November 26 is Thanksgiving. December 25 is Christmas Day. If you have people coming into town and staying near the water, it's worth knowing in advance.

See It for Yourself

CBS 8's coverage from Monday shows what the Mission Beach flooding actually looked like:

Mission Beach flooded as high tides batters the coast — CBS 8 San Diego (3:19)

Where It Floods

The pattern is consistent, and it's as much about the bay as the ocean:

• Mission Beach — particularly the bayside streets and alleys, and underground parking. This is the area the city berms
• Mission Bay and the low streets around it, including Ingraham Street near SeaWorld
• Pacific Beach, around Dawes Street
• Ocean Beach and the pier
• Imperial Beach
• La Jolla, where the issue is wave impact on the bluffs and seawall rather than street flooding
• Coronado, where the Five Points intersection has closed for flooding before

One thing surprises people who've just moved here: the worst flooding is often bayside, not oceanfront. Water comes up through the bay and the storm drains, into streets that look nothing like a beach.

This Isn't Only a Winter Problem Anymore

Two events this year happened outside king tide season entirely.

In July 2026, a tidal surge flooded coastal areas over several days. The city added Stormwater Department staff, put up warning signs around Midway and other affected areas, monitored Mission Beach, and distributed free unfilled sandbags at rec centres.

In August 2026, seven-foot tides flooded Mission Beach streets again, and an underground parking garage went under. A longtime resident and business owner there, Walden Keyes, told reporters: "It seems to be happening more and more often."

He also raised a point worth knowing: the city deploys the protective berms in winter. The August tides weren't in winter.

What the City Is Doing

San Diego adopted a Coastal Resilience Master Plan in September 2025. It identifies project sites at La Jolla Shores, Tourmaline Surf Park, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach and Sunset Cliffs.

Where things stand:

• Tourmaline, Ocean Beach and Sunset Cliffs have moved into the initial engineering design phase
• La Jolla Shores and Mission Beach remain at conceptual design, which the city attributes to funding constraints

In the shorter term, the visible measure is sand berms along the Mission Bay shoreline and other beaches, built to absorb heavy surf. This week demonstrated both halves of that story — the berm failed on Monday and held on Tuesday after being rebuilt overnight.

What to Do About It

If you live or park near the water:

• Know the dates above, and the morning timing. The peak is between roughly 7:30 and 9:30 a.m.
• Move your car the night before, especially out of underground and alley parking in Mission Beach
• Sandbags: the city has distributed free unfilled sandbags at selected recreation centres during past events. Check sandiego.gov/storm-preparedness for current locations
• Don't drive through flooded streets. Standing salt water on a residential street is deeper and more corrosive than it looks
• Check the real number, not the prediction. NOAA publishes observed water levels alongside predictions for the San Diego gauge

If you just want to see it:

• Go at the peak time, not at noon. A king tide at 1 p.m. is an ordinary day at the beach
• The California King Tides Project asks people to photograph them — the whole point is building a public record of where the water actually reaches

Why This Is Worth Understanding

King tides are not a disaster. They're a preview.

The Coastal Commission's framing is the useful one: a king tide today shows you roughly where an ordinary high tide sits a few decades from now. That's why the photographs matter, and why the city's berm performance in October is worth paying attention to in a way that a single flooded street otherwise wouldn't be.

For now, the practical version is simpler. There's a strong El Niño sitting on top of the Pacific through at least March. It has raised the baseline. Three king tide windows are coming — late November, Christmas week, and late January — and every one of them peaks before 9:30 in the morning.

Put them in your calendar. Move the car the night before.

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Sources and live information:

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
• NOAA — U.S. Winter Outlook
• California Coastal Commission — King Tides
• NOAA Tides & Currents — Sea Level Trends and Extremes
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography — Sea Level Rise FAQ
• City of San Diego — Coastal Resilience Master Plan
• City of San Diego — Storm Preparedness